DVOA and the 2025 Seahawks

Hey Friends!

This is a long one filled with sports, math, and history, so grab some popcorn and let's get to it! Data is a huge part of sports today and advanced analytics help players and teams understand their strengths and challenges even better. Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or DVOA is an amazing metric used in the NFL. Here’s a breakdown of how it works. The specific details are more involved and proprietary so even if we wanted to we couldn’t share them.

What is Value Over Average exactly? Do you remember in your first Stats class when you learned about standard deviation and z-scores? Similar vibes. If you don’t, don’t worry. I got you. It’s essentially a measure of how much better or worse you are than average, specific to every context. Your VOA is the value (we’ll talk about many of the things that go into this) your team gets minus the historical league average, and that quantity is divided by the absolute value of the league average value. To simplify, if your performance on that play was worse than typical, you’ll have a negative VOA. If your performance on that play was better than typical, you’ll have a positive VOA. Simple as that.

DVOA is a particularly amazing metric because it takes data from every play and works each play as an independent event. Plays that give the team a higher probability of “success” help DVOA and plays that given the team a lower probability of “success” hurt DVOA. A key piece to DVOA is that context matters.

To maximize DVOA, there are different metrics depending on down. On first down for example, the D should hold the O to under 45% of yards needed for first down, i.e. under 4.5 yards on a first and ten. On second down, the D should hold the O to under 60% of the remaining yards. So say it’s 2^nd and 5, the D should hold the O to under 3 yards as 3 is 60% of 5. You with me? OK let’s keep going. On 3^rd and 4^th down, the D needs to completely deny the O positive yardage to maximize DVOA.

There are also adjustments for negative-yardage and game-changing plays like sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and tackles for loss. All help a Defense’s DVOA. Again, context matters. For example, an interception on 4^th down deep in their own territory counts much less than an interception in the red zone, which is much more game-changing, and adversely impacts the offenses chances of success.

Pass D and Rush D are evaluated differently too. Pass D considers the types of receivers (e.g. outside, slot, TE, RB out of the backfield, etc.) as well as pass breakups, pressure, and pass distance, among other things. Rush D considers how well the D stops the run, using a metric called adjusted line yards.

One thing I love about DVOA is that it accounts for strength of opponent. For example, if you’re facing an offensive juggernaut, that averages 500 yards per game and 35 points per game, you could have a pretty spectacular DVOA by allowing 300 yards and 21 points because relative to the league average, against said juggernaut, you did awesome. Now let’s talk about a few teams that had the best DVOA all time, including my 2025-2026 Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks!

The 1991-92 Washington Redskins, arguably the greatest team ever, recorded a total DVOA of 56.9%,and finished the postseason with a DVOA of 53.9% ranking as the #1 single-season team in modern NFL history. They had the 2nd best offense in that season, led by offensive minded head coach Joe Gibbs, Mark Rypien at QB with a league-leading 8.07 yards per pass attempt, throwing 14 touchdown passes of over 25 yards, two 1000+ yard receivers and their legendary offensive line allowing only 9 sacks during the entire 16-game regular season. The 1991 Washington defense got its #3 DVOA ranking in that season, behind only the all-time 1991 Philadelphia Eagles (-36.7% DVOA) and the New Orleans Saints. They racked up 50 sacks, resulting in a historic +41 sack differential over their own offense. The unit had a +18 turnover differential, as well as pitching 3 regular season shutouts, and allowing only 14 points per game to the opposing team. They ended up 14-2 in the regular season, scored 485 points while allowing only 224 (+261 margin), and bested the Atlanta Falcons 24-7, Detroit Lions 41-10 and the Buffalo Bills in a high scoring game 37-24 to win Super Bowl XXVI (or 26).

The 1985-86 Chicago Bears finished with a total 52.3% DVOA, the second best in NFL history, featuring the highest single-season defensive DVOA ever recorded at -36.5% which safely puts them as the second-greatest team in NFL history by total advanced metrics. Let’s talk about their defensive dominance. Led by coordinator Buddy Ryan’s “46 defense”, named after the jersey number of Bears safety Doug Plank, who frequently lined up in the box as an  extra defender. They allowed only 10 total points across three postseason games, including back to back playoff shutouts, and they capped off their 18-1 season by defeating the New England Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX (20). Before we proceed to my 2025-2026 Seattle Seahawks, let’s give a shoutout to the third best DVOA in NFL history, namely the 2007-2008 New England Patriots. They had a historic offensive DVOA behind peak Tom Brady and earned a total DVOA of 51.0%... For those that forgot, this is the team that went 16-0 and ultimately lost to Eli Manning’s Giants in Super Bowl XLII (or 42).

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Now the moment you’ve all been waiting for, let’s talk about our defending 2025-2026 Super Bowl LX (60) Champions, the Seattle Seahawks! The 2025-2026 Seatle Seahawks had a 46.4% overall DVOA, meaning they were 46.4% BETTER than the average NFL team, per play! While fourth all time, and third among teams that won the Super Bowl that year, I believe defensively this team is top two, along with the 1985 Bears, who we discussed earlier. See the ’85 Bears (46 Defense) and the ’25 Seahawks (Dark Side) are the only two teams here with an offensive DVOA of 10% or less. Think about how goated those defenses must’ve been to make this list! Also, in the spirit of shouting out legendary Defenses, the Seahawks 2013-2014 Legion of Boom D that led the team to the Super Bowl XLVIII (48) title also had a historically high DVOA!

Here’s a bit more info about your historic 2025-2026 defending Champs. Before we get to the Dark Side D, a quick shoutout to JSN for his historic receiving season to lead us on the offensive side of the ball, and Sam Darnold for trusting his process and facilitating the offense in his first year with the team. Also, let’s give some love to Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III. We’ll miss you at RB but good luck in KC. Now to further bolster Bear Bryant’s old adage “Defense wins Championships”, here are some Dark Side stats for you. In the 2025 NFL season, this team had the #1 scoring defense (17 points per game allowed), #1 total defense (267 yards per game allowed), and #1 DVOA. In the playoffs, the Dark Side only allowed 46 total points, or 15.3 points per game. In the 29-13 LX Super Bowl win over the Patriots, this D had 2 interceptions, 11 QB hits on Drake Maye, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, 6 sacks, and a TD. Unreal stuff!

Head Coach Mike Macdonald has always been defense first. He used high pressure pass rushes with coverage disguises and baited offenses brilliantly. He also created a culture in the locker room that was ego free where players played for each other rather than themselves. As for the stars of the Dark Side, shoutout Devon Witherspoon, a shutdown corner of WR1s all season. Earnest Jones IV is a tackling machine and one of the best linebackers in the NFL. Byron Murphy II, nose tackle had two sacks and a fumble recovery in the SB and was incredible stopping the run all season. Uchenna Nwosu and Derick Hall, both linebackers, were also fantastic. Safety Julian Love was everywhere and a great leader on this team. Edges Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence put crazy pressure on QBs facilitating a lot of the secondary’s successes. Josh Jobe was a great CB2 and rookie safety/nickelback Nick Emmanwori stepped up in amazing ways throughout the season and playoffs. Also, shoutout to safety Coby Bryant (not to be confused with the #GOAT #24 #RIPKOBE) and DE/LB Boye Mafe and good luck on the Bears and Bengals, respectively.

Hope you enjoyed and learned something in this exploration of DVOA and why my hometown defending Super Bowl Champ Seattle Seahawks are among the best teams all time! #GOHAWKS

That’s all for today! See y’all next time! Sarang out.